JEE Advanced Maths · Probability
Does P(A or B) just mean P(A) + P(B)?
No. The word "or" maps neatly onto a plus sign in everyday language, but adding and counts the overlap twice — once inside each set. The correct rule is inclusion–exclusion: include both sets by adding, then exclude the part you double-counted by subtracting it once: .
The clean statement to hold is: for "or", add the two then subtract what they share — and only drop the last term once you have checked the events cannot both happen. JEE Advanced punishes the additive instinct through OR-probability questions (2021 Paper 2 Q17, multiples of 3 or 7), at-most-one questions (2022 Paper 1 Q3), and the overlap-bound reasoning behind 2021 Paper 1 Q13.
Ready to fix this? The Probability lesson works through this misconception and the others in Probability, one altitude at a time.
How to spot it in your own work
- You wrote "" without subtracting the shared part.
- You counted a value that lives in both sets twice (a multiple of both 3 and 7, say) and never removed the duplicate.
- Your "or" probability came out larger than it should — possibly above 1 — and you did not check the overlap.
- You assumed two events were mutually exclusive () without confirming they cannot co-occur.
An exam question that triggers it
Here is a question that tests this misconception head-on, in the spirit of JEE Advanced 2021 Paper 2 Q17:
A whole number from 1 to 100 is chosen at random. What is the probability it is a multiple of 3 or a multiple of 7?
The misconception answer adds the two counts: 33 multiples of 3, 14 multiples of 7, so . But the multiples of — namely — sit in both lists, so each has been counted twice. The correct move subtracts that overlap once:
The answer is , not — smaller by exactly the four double-counted multiples of 21.
Why students fall for this
"Or" reads as "add" in plain English, and for sets that happen not to overlap the additive rule even gives the right answer, so it survives unchallenged for a long time. Because nothing in the rule caps the total, two large overlapping sets can push the "probability" above 1 — a result the student often does not notice they have produced.
Garfield and Ahlgren, and Fischbein, document this additivity-overextension error: students extend the disjoint-additivity axiom to events that are not disjoint. Being shown the inclusion–exclusion formula rarely dislodges it, because adding still feels like what "or" means. What dislodges it is handing the student one specific number — — and letting them watch it sit in both counts, so the double-counting becomes a thing they see rather than a principle they are told.
The fix: Add the two, then subtract what they share
Include both sets by adding them, then exclude the overlap you counted twice by subtracting it once: . The is exactly the part that lives in both, removed the one extra time it was tallied.
Adding alone is correct only when the events are mutually exclusive, that is when and they cannot both occur. For three events the principle extends with alternating signs,
Worked example
Count the numbers from to that are a multiple of 3 or 7, watching the overlap.
- Multiples of 3. of them.
- Multiples of 7. of them.
- The overlap. A number in both lists is a multiple of . From 1 to 100 these are — of them. Each was counted once among the 33 and again among the 14.
- Subtract the overlap once.
- Compare. The additive rule gave ; the correct answer is , smaller by exactly — the four multiples of 21 that were tallied twice. The error is the size of the overlap, nothing mysterious.
The same framework settles JEE Advanced 2022 Paper 1 Q3, which asks for : this is the complement of a union, and unpacking the union needs inclusion–exclusion so that students sharing two symptoms are not counted twice. And on a class with , , , the chance of football or tennis is , not the additive .
Find out if this is costing you marks
The 10-minute diagnostic checks for this pattern (and four others) using AQA-style GCSE Higher items. Free, no signup, anonymous.
Common questions
- When is actually correct?
When the events are mutually exclusive — they cannot both happen, so and the overlap term vanishes. Rolling a 3 or a 5 on one die is mutually exclusive, so adding is fine. Being a multiple of 3 or 7 is not, because multiples of 21 satisfy both — there you must subtract.
- How do I find the overlap ?
Count or compute the outcomes that satisfy both conditions. For multiples of 3 and 7 that is the multiples of their product, 21. In a worded problem the overlap is often given directly ("20% play both sports") or read from a two-way table or Venn diagram. Subtract whatever that shared probability is, once.
- What about three or more events?
Inclusion–exclusion extends with alternating signs: . You add the singles, subtract the pairwise overlaps, then add back the triple overlap — which was removed one too many times — so every region ends up counted exactly once.
- How does this trap show up in JEE counting questions?
JEE Advanced 2021 Paper 2 Q17 asks for over a range, where forgetting the multiples of 21 overcounts; 2022 Paper 1 Q3 asks for , the complement of a union that only unpacks correctly through inclusion–exclusion. The shared-region reasoning also underpins the intersection bounds in 2021 Paper 1 Q13.
Related misconceptions
- Conditional probability transpositionP(A|B) ≠ P(B|A) — reading a test's accuracy as your chance of disease ignores the base rate; Bayes bridges them.
- Complement neglect (the at-least-one trap)P(at least one) = 1 − P(none) — adding the per-case probabilities double-counts and can shoot past 1.
- Unwarranted independenceP(A and B) = P(A)·P(B|A) — you may multiply the plain probabilities only when the events are independent.